bet365 value betting Last Updated on October 7, 2023
Is Bet365 Value Betting Profitable?
Bet365 value betting is a skill or ability to identify an edge against the bookie(bet365). When bets are priced for less than they're worth, it offers more value to those who place wagers.
Before you get into that process, you'll need to know the basics of sports betting. That begins by understanding the break-even rate. That's the figure you need to win a given bet to break even over the long run. You'll have a better edge when there's a more considerable difference.
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Then start shopping around for the best pricing and odds. Bet365 offers access to numerous leagues and sports, allowing you to find different opportunities. For example, why invest in an EPL game when an MLS match has better odds with equal chances of coming ahead?
If you like to bet on leagues like the NFL, it is essential to understand the value of a half-point when betting. A slight shift from -3 at -110 to -2.5 at -125 can give you a sharp edge.
Once you have the initial concepts, you are ready to explore Bet365 value betting. Keep in mind that bet365 is registered with GamStop, therefore it'll be much more profitable if you choose a non-GamStop casino instead.
What Is Bet365 Value Betting?
Value bets in Bet365 are opportunities where the odds of coming out ahead are in your favor. It's different with bookmakers than in games like poker because you don't have anything in the pot when you start this process.
In poker, you might have $150 in the pot already. Someone puts in $35, and now it becomes $185. Your call of $35 means you can win $220 from the hand. So it makes sense to see what happens.
Bookmakers aim to create accurate odds that reflect a team, game, and sport. The odds are slightly (or significantly) slanted in their favor to ensure there are moneymaking opportunities to pursue.
When you research the odds, dig into each game or match, and calculate the information yourself to verify its accuracy, you will have opportunities to find value bets.
Understanding the Relationship Between Odds and Probability
Probability is a term that describes the likelihood of a specific event happening. For example, betting sites in Kenya use a percentage to visualize this information for placing bets.
Imagine that you're placing a bet on a coin toss. The chances of it landing on heads or tails is 50%. That means you have a half-and-half opportunity to get the wager right or wrong, assuming that each toss is fair.
That means the expected value of having heads or tails would be 0.00. However, if you kept tossing the coin infinitely, you'd get approximately the same number of each result. That means the odds should be 2.0.
What if you find a bookmaker willing to give you 2.25 odds that the coin toss is heading? In that circumstance, you would have a value betting opportunity. Since the probability equals each toss, you expect to make an average profit with each bet.
Is Value Betting Real at Bet365?
Bookmakers won't purposely put out value betting opportunities because they need to stay in business. Instead, they aim to ensure the advantage stays on their side of the betting equation.
If you take a 50/50 event with 2.0 assigned odds, you'd likely receive an offer of 1.9 on both outcomes while having a margin of 5%. So instead of turning a profit with each bet when averaging them all out, you would turn a slight loss.
That doesn't mean you can't find value betting odds Bet365 publishes daily on their site. However, it does require you to work for those opportunities by researching events, making judgment calls, and staying on top of moving odds.
Here are some ways to move the needle in your favor when looking for Bet365 value bets today.
Focus on Your Odds
Value bettors find more opportunities when they take the time to calculate personal odds from the marketplace instead of relying on Bet365 to do the work for them. Think of yourself as a financial analyst, looking for data on new opportunities by evaluating probabilities from your perspective.
Once you calculate the odds that you think an event should be, compare them to what you can find on Bet365. Another option is to review the prices on betting exchanges.
The first few evaluations might not go well, especially if you don't gather all the available information to create an informed decision. But, as time passes, you'll get better at this process. In addition, it'll open the door to finding over and undervalued selections.
Assess and Evaluate
Modeling for value bets in Bet365 and other books often uses a mathematics-based approach. The goal is to create controlled mechanisms that shift the odds and probabilities as needed while using analytical data to justify the activity.
Many bettors use gut feelings to determine whether a bet has value or not. Although these instincts disconnect you from emotional betting choices, it isn't the same as calculating the expected value of an opportunity.
Knowing how to calculate the value of football betting is the same as it is for any other sport. Here's the basic formula.
- Take the probability and multiply it by the decimal odds.
- Subtract one point from the result you receive.
- Anything with a value greater than 0 is a potential value bet.
If you receive odds on a coin flip at 2.30, the first step of the calculation is to multiply that number by the probability, which would be 50%. That leaves us with 1.15. Now, we need to subtract 1.0 from that figure. So we'd end up with 0.15, which means you could place a value bet on Bet365 if the bookie offers those odds.
We can examine this from the other side. Let's take the 1.9 odds and put it into the calculation. First, we would multiply 50% and 1.9, which gives us 0.80. Then we subtract 1.0, which leaves us with -0.2.
That means we would not have a value bet available since the amount is less than 0, so we'd want to find something else to try.
Think in Probabilities
When you want to know how to find value bets in Bet365, the first step is to stop thinking about underdogs and favourites. Instead, you want to approach each situation by looking at the available probabilities.
Your goal is to assess the likelihood of an event with more accuracy than Bet365 and other bookmakers.
Favourites do not always win, and underdogs can underperform significantly. Therefore, once you've calculated the odds for the event, you should look for differences in the implied probability of each expected outcome.
Compare those figures to the ones you've calculated. If you find betting value, there's an opportunity to discover some success. If not, move on.
Avoid being concerned about betting on specific outcomes or underdogs if you think the betting value is available.
Specialize in One Space
If you grew up playing football and watch the sport passionately, it makes sense to focus on value betting in this area rather than in tennis, handball, or cricket. With that said, you'll find more value bets in niche markets because the playing field is higher.
Once you understand how a market operates, you will find more opportunities where the odds are skewed from your calculations. That gives you more chances to find meaningful value bets to place.
Review Your Results
As you start making Bet365 value bets, keep track of the results you achieve. Most of the success in this area is developed by having a mindset for finding opportunities. That process must be based on an open-minded review of your previous outcomes and assessments.
What areas did you get right? Where did things go wrong?
For many first-time value bettors, the influences of preconceived biases and emotional responses can shift calculations. For example, you might find things going wrong if you love a specific team or sport, hate a particular player, or allow other opinions to be treated as facts.
It helps to take a cold, logical approach to value betting on Bet365 or other platforms. For example, is a real home-field advantage in a league or sport? Does the marketplace overvalue a specific player or team?
Although it can be plenty of work to analyze all the potential information points, you'll find that the outcomes are often worth the investment.
Embrace Persistence
A broken clock is correct at least once per day. You can always find value bets on Bet365 by luck, but you want more. This skill takes time to develop and requires you to embrace a combination of your intuition for opportunities and the information available for specific bets.
There will be times when you think you've done everything right, but it ends up turning out to go wrong. Bad beats are part of this process.
Don't give up on your evaluation work. When you can develop a rich and profound experience that honestly evaluates betting markets and looks for value, you'll find that the results eventually turn in your favor.
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How Can I Improve My Betting on Bet365?
Calculating the value of Bet365 odds is only one step in finding opportunities. However, when you know how to approach each bet and situation openly and honestly, you can allow logic to drive you forward more often than emotion.
Although some people might rely on a value-betting bot for Bet365 or other shortcuts, you can improve your approach by incorporating the following ideas. Keep in mind that using a bot can restrict or suspend your bet365 account.
Fund Your Activities
A sensible bankroll for Bet365 needs to absorb losses while providing enough lift for value bets to be worthwhile. But, of course, any amount can turn into something more significant when you do your research. Still, fewer bets and lower figures are available when there isn't enough cash to cover every potential opportunity.
The goal should be to grow your bankroll quickly while avoiding its complete loss. If you find value regularly, start staking more with each bet to encourage additional growth. Random swings can be devastating, even if your development process is correct.
Try to stake 1% of your bankroll for each value bet. If you feel an intense payout is possible because of the odds, push it to 2%. Going above that amount could be problematic if the outcomes aren't in your favor.
Fall in Love with Ugly Bets
It doesn't take long to see that the best value bets are often around the teams that most people avoid. When a wager looks ugly on paper, there's a good chance that many opportunities are available to pursue.
Although this option might seem counterintuitive, it's helpful to remember that you're not jumping right into the bet. Instead, you're looking for information that encourages you to see the value or distracts you from the situation.
When the public jumps off the bandwagon for a specific team, that's when the value of the next bet potentially rises.
Don't Dwell on the Past
It doesn't matter if you guessed all but one of the latest NCAA D1 basketball tournament results. Who cares if you defied the odds and made a killing when Arsenal beat Liverpool? It would be best if you shrugged off the successes and the failures with equal speed.
Put the last results out of your mind and stick with your analysis of the situation. A recent winning streak often gives people the courage to make foolish bets, thinking they're in a rush. At the same time, a losing streak can tighten up bettors, making them miss a high-value opportunity.
Do your best to stick with your plans whenever possible. This approach will prevent you from overextending yourself or being blinded by perceived failure.
Big Paydays Are Few and Far Between
Teasers, parlays, and multi-bets should be avoided when wagering at Bet365. Although these options are fun to play, they're about as successful as purchasing a lottery ticket.
Unless you've done a complete analysis of the situation and found an actual value bet, these significant payday options are more likely to take your money than offer a payout.
People add bets to a multi-bet because they think they find value in the investment. After all, no one places a wager without some value representation! But, unfortunately, unless you increase the odds or find better probabilities, the chances decline with each addition you decide to use.
If you want a big score:
- Have some fun with the wager.
- Bet it for entertainment purposes, and make sure you have a budget that supports the activity.
- For everything else, stick to your plans and trust your research.
Create Long-Term Opportunities With Bet365 Value Betting
Anyone can bet big and hope for a massive short-term result. There might even be a few value bets to find with that approach.
If your goal is to keep building your betting bankroll, a steady increase only comes from long-term perspectives.
Consider turning this activity into a marathon instead of a sprint when looking for value bets. It requires patience to be successful, and you need to be willing to embrace the grind. Add a little compound interest, and what seems like small growth can lead to significant wealth with a bit of luck.
Having more of a financial cushion with your betting bankroll makes it easier to deal with the various swings and streaks. But, of course, you want the curve to be smooth and upward for building wealth.
Even if you're only getting 5% value, the results can be incredible – and they don't take that long to start building.
Stop Making Things Interesting
Instead of putting money down on bets that are unlikely to succeed, keep your focus on the value opportunities your calculations discover. Once you can get some positive results in niche sports or events, start moving to the leagues and teams where higher betting limits are available.
Although football is a famous avenue for this tip on Bet365, it isn't the only course you can take.
You want to avoid the different arcades, slots, and virtual sports that deliver unpredictable outcomes. Although you could go to a casino and bet everything on one hand of Blackjack, what odds you'll win?
Assuming that you follow a basic strategy and play a classic game, you have a 42% chance of winning and about an 8% chance to push. Unfortunately, that means you have a 49% risk of losing.
Over an hour, you'd win 26 hands, lose 29, and tie five times in that situation. Of course, those aren't great odds, but the experience is “interesting.”
Value betting doesn't focus on paying for entertainment. Instead, it looks at bankroll growth. So put your money into the areas that achieve this outcome.
How to Place Value Bets on Bet365
Bet365 doesn't identify value bets, so it is up to you to find them through your research. You'll want to follow this process when ready to place a wager.
- Log into Bet365 with your account information. You'll see a yellow “Log In” button on the website's home page. If you don't have a profile, click on the “Join” link.
- Find a value bet via one of the most famous arbitrage software solutions like BetBurger or RebelBetting.
- Choose the game or match on which you'd like to place a bet through this platform. Click on the “Sports” menu option, pick the sport, and select the specific event you feel offers a value bet.
- Pick the bet type you want to make. One of the most accessible options is to choose the full-time result. That means you're picking the team you believe will win or if the match will end in a draw.
- After picking the odds you'd like to place, your selection will show on the Bet365 bet slip. Enter your stake, which is the amount you'd like to bet. If you win, that amount and your profits are returned to your account automatically.
- Choose “Place Bet” to finalize the wager.
- Additional bets are available by looking at the right-hand side of the screen. You'll see dozens of potential options for some sports, such as double chance, correct score, and half-time results.
The best Bet365 value bets typically come from a correct score wager. These outcomes require research to find and predict, but the results are relatively consistent when you're familiar with the teams and sports involved.
When looking for value bets, try to avoid anything about 15.0 for the best results. On the other hand, something in the 7.5 to 10.0 range is usually a decent payout.
How Can I Win from Bet365 Value Betting?
Value betting is one of the ways how to win on bet365. Bet365 offers some fantastic opportunities for value betting when you take the time to research the various lines the site provides. Although software can help you look for these opportunities, it could also be interpreted as violating the site's terms and conditions.
Once you have a Bet365 account, you will discover the sheer number of sports and leagues available for betting is enormous. You can potentially find an edge in these niche areas, but an obscure market that suddenly gets attention is more likely to have people looking at your account.
If you are a savvy sports bettor, another option to enhance your winnings is to look at the in-play betting options. Again, arbitrage opportunities are possible in these spaces, especially in sports like cricket.
With all that in mind, you will find that value bettors tend to place their bets early in the week. This is because every market starts with an opening line, and they typically have lower limits than what you'll have as the event gets closer. This process happens to limit Bet365's exposure.
Then focus on the closing line value. Winning isn't the only measure of success. If you can get your money into a bet where the odds are in your favor, you've made a great choice. Value betting encourages you to repeat that process so that your bankroll will eventually start growing.
There are never any guarantees with sports betting. However, if you know the power of Bet365 value bets and implement them consistently, you'll temper the loss risks significantly.
